Nigel Sizer’s 10th and final post from the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, which kicked of Monday, December 3rd. 

Into extra time!

After a second sleepless night and dramatic wrangling all day, by mid-afternoon the United States capitulated and “joined the consensus.” You’ve all read the news reports and seen the pain on the faces of the exhausted government officials. This was surely the most important decision taken by governments on an environmental issue since the Kyoto Protocol itself was finalized in December 1997. It sets the stage for two years of discussions, pilot programs and further science ending in Copenhagen with COP 15 (via Poland next year) and, hopefully, agreement on commitments beyond 2012 (the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol). Those commitments are likely to include far deeper cuts emissions than anything even imagined in 1997.

What hasn’t come over in the international media coverage, and what I have tried to convey through this blog, is that whatever is happening in the intergovernmental discussions, there are thousands upon thousands of local and national, private and public, scientific and political initiatives blooming around the planet as we all figure out what we can do to help address climate change. I left the Bali Convention Center for the last time incredibly energized by what I have learned, the leaders I had met, and by the vision and creativity I saw each day over the past two weeks.

Descending from the global negotiations back to the communities that Rare works to inspire and help, I look forward to the challenge over the coming weeks and months of helping position this organization as a leading contributor to climate change solutions. Rare can help with demonstration projects to engage communities in reducing forest loss, and with others in conserving coral reefs to improve their resilience to climate change.  We can take those experiences with us to Poland and to Denmark and help others to do likewise. We can create a global network of practitioners who can help truly deliver on the Bali promise.

Nigel Sizer’s 9th post from the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, which kicked off Monday, December 3rd. 

(Note: Today was supposed to be last day of the conference, but negotiations stalled and carried over into Saturday)

The Forests COP?

Negotiators agreed today to include reduction of emissions from deforestation and degradation of forests in the formal intergovernmental climate change process. This will generate major new funds (from carbon markets and from expanding development assistance) for forest conservation in developing countries. The tricky part is figuring out how to spend the money well. This is also a concrete commitment from developing countries to contribute to global efforts to combat climate change. For some, this is the most significant outcome of the Bali COP.

Well, as I write I am sitting in the plenary hall, which has just emptied out. It’s nearly 9pm. Despite earlier deadlock, rumors are the major powers are coming to an agreement on language to take this process forward. But there’s no telling how much longer they need to (literally) cross the “t”s and dot the “i”s on the official text…time to head home to be with my family. Meanwhile, we just heard that the UN Secretary General is flying here from East Timor to help rescue the negotiations.

Exhausted delegates in the plenary hall, two weeks of talk takes its toll

As I have a few minutes almost to myself in this huge room I just noticed that some of the countries have white instead of black name flags. I think these are the ones that have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol. From where I am sitting, these are the United States, Serbia, Central African Republic, Afghanistan, Chad, Zimbabwe, and the Holy Sea. What great company our country keeps!

The United States has a white name flag, one of very few in the plenary hall.

The media are camped outside the room where the small group of ministers is haggling. When I walked past I didn’t quite realize why they were all there and asked one of the journalists who they were waiting for. She replied, “Paris Hilton!” Alas it was a joke. Instead they were stalking the somewhat less attractive chief US climate negotiator, Harlan Watson, waiting for him to have to pee, so they could get a quick update. He appeared and was mobbed, but he seemed to be enjoying every second of it. I guess it’s not everyday that Mr. Watson gets the Paris Hilton treatment.

US chief climate negotiator, Harlan Watson (in the blue tie) trying to get to the bathroom, mobbed by the media pack

Nigel Sizer’s 8th post from the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, which kicked of Monday, December 3rd. 

Rare’s Arlington neighbor, AES Corporation is here in force. Today their CEO announced plans to invest $600 million in energy plants in Indonesia and Thailand that will run on agricultural waste. The first will be built in Bali. Rice husk and straw waste are traditionally burned in the fields here, producing thick haze for a couple of months each year. AES has long been a leader on climate change, offsetting a power plant’s emissions for the first time 20 years ago.

Governor Maggi, of Matto Grosso state in the Brazilian Amazon, Professor Dan Nepstad of Woods Hole Research Center, and the leader of the Amazon’s rubbertappers agreeing on proposals for reducing deforestation.

Dan Nepstad, of Woods Hole Research Center, presented new estimates of the costs of reducing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. By 2030 he estimates 55 percent of the Amazon would be cleared, logged or otherwise damaged if there are not major changes in policy and financing. In a brilliant exercise in modeling and projection, Nepstad and his collaborators have mapped out, across the entire Brazilian Amazon, the opportunity costs of keeping forest standing. He has shown that about 90 percent of the carbon needs to have a price of less than $5 per tonne, and 94 percent is less than $10 per tonne to outbid more destructive activities. Even building in generous payments to forest peoples and local communities that have already been conserving forests, improving local healthcare and other support, over the next 30 years it would cost only $41 billion to bring deforestation down in the Brazilian Amazon down to zero. This works out to be only $1.2 per tonne of avoided emissions of carbon dioxide – a very good deal as Lord Stern said the day before.

So American corporations and scientists are making huge contributions to progress on climate change, as are over 700 US cities, California, New York and countless other local initiatives. 

And former US Vice President, Al Gore, has arguably made the greatest contribution to moving action on climate change forward. The highlight of the past two weeks was attending his hour-long exhortation to delegates last night to move forward despite the enormous obstacle posed by the White House. “My own country, the United States, is principally responsible for impeding progress here in Bali,” he stressed, to thunderous applause. He then asked all those who had applauded that statement to harness their anger and frustration at the United States and channel it into moving forward, leaving a large space for the next US administration to fill following the elections next year. 

Al Gore exhorting action and leadership from delegates in Bali.

“We are seeing the early stages of a global people power movement for the first time,” exhorted Gore to a thrilled and packed auditorium. He ended on a direct and inspiring note, appealing to us, telling us that we should devote all our efforts to moving action forward since, “This relatively small group of people here in Bali can control the destiny of all humankind.”

As you’ve seen in the media, negotiations are not going well. But this shouldn’t be a surprise, governments have rarely been ahead of concerned citizens on environmental issues. Check out Gore’s website to see the dozens of things you can do now to reduce emissions, none of us need to wait for governments to come to consensus here in Bali, it is up to each person, first and foremost Americans, to lead by doing: http://www.climateprotect.org/

Nigel Sizer’s 7th post from the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, which kicked of Monday, December 3rd. 

Ministers step up

UNEP’s head, Achim Steiner, was characteristically eloquent today. “There is the Bali of the brackets and the Bali of action,” he noted, referring to the challenges of reaching formal agreement and the brackets inserted around text that has not yet been adopted, in contrast with the actions that many are simply stepping forward and announcing. The German Minister of Environment also noted that among many countries the discourse has shifted from waiting for the others to act first to, “this is my contribution now what’s yours?”

Costa Rica, New Zealand and Norway announced this morning their plan to go climate neutral. In other words they will have no net greenhouse gas emissions. The 5 percent reduction targets of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, which yesterday celebrated its 10th birthday, start to look insignificant.

UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner, with Celso Amorim, Foreign Minister of Brazil, and Marina Silva, Brazil’s Minister of Environment, discussing Brazil’s leadership on addressing tropical deforestation.

Brazil’s Minister of Environment, Marina Silva, and Foreign Minister, Celso Amorim, launched the Fund for Protection and Conservation of the Brazilian Amazon. Policy reforms in Brazil have lead to a 60 percent fall in deforestation in the Amazon since 2003. But forest loss continues apace and further reductions are harder without significant cash. Brazil has set up a forest monitoring and carbon accounting system, with very conservative assumption, which sells carbon from reduced deforestation, but only after a further fall in deforestation is seen. Gert Leipold, Executive Director of Greenpeace International, took the floor and praised Brazil.

Meanwhile the plenary session saw the UN Secretary general, Indonesia’s President, several other heads of state, and over 100 ministers each making brief speeches.  A few quotes:

“Climate change is upon us, it is time to act…global temperature increase should not exceed two degrees, and this is still within reach” Portugal on behalf of the European Union.

“We cannot willingly accept even a two degree rise in termperatures….no island should be left behind.” Grenada on behalf of the small island states.

“All of us should take bigger and bolder steps to reduce emissions. Brazil is ready to reduce its emissions in a way that is measurable and verifiable and we encourage other developing countries to do the same.” Celso Amorim.

“In my first act as Prime Minister I signed the Kyoto Protocol…climate change is an emerging reality…in Australia our inland rivers are dying, bush fires are becoming more frequent…climate change is the defining challenge of our generation…committed to 60 percent reductions by 2050, with short and medium term targets to be announced soon…there is no plan B, no other planet to escape to.” Kevin Rudd, Australia.

Sigmar Gabriel, Minister of Environment, Germany with Steve Howard, CEO, The Climate Group and Lord Nicolas Stern, reviewing options for major reductions in emissions.

In the evening global climate celebrity and master economist, Lord Nicolas Stern (he was elevated to the House of Lords just last month), leader of the seminal review on the economics of climate change, joined a panel with the German Environment Minister. Lord Stern is very impressive and I have to share his thoughts. He said, “Look, solving this problem is actually quite simple,” and went on to highlight five steps:

1.TARGETS. We need a global target of a 50 percent reduction by 2050, with the rich world reducing emissions by 80 percent, getting us down to about 2-3 tonnes of carbon dioxide per person per year worldwide.  

2.TRADING. Large scale investment in the south is needed via carbon markets under a reformed CDM, if this shows significant benefits to the south then by about 2015 would be reasonable to expect them to start taking on targets as well. Before then would be unfair.

3.FORESTS. $10-15 billion per year would cut deforestation in half, and this would be a very good deal, starting with funding efforts to build and reform the key institutions in each country.

4.TECHNOLOGY. We will see major breakthroughs, and funding should be invested in this area.

5.FOREIGN ASSISTANCE. If rich countries lived up to the commitment they have already made to provide 0.7 percent of GDP for foreign assistance this would generate the increases needed to support adaptation and other efforts.

Easy!
 

Nigel Sizer’s 7th post from the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, which kicked off Monday, December 3rd.

Waking up to tropical deforestation

Ten years ago when I worked at World Resources Institute, we encouraged the world to include efforts to reduce deforestation in the process to address climate change. Many environmental groups were firmly opposed, with some justification, as they felt the focus needed to be on getting the rich world to cut emissions.

A decade has passed and much has changed. The ground-breaking Stern report on the economics of climate change highlighted the relatively low cost of protecting many tropical forests versus the very high costs associated with other means of reducing emissions. The IPCC, co-winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, mustered global scientific consensus to point out the contribution of tropical deforestation to global emissions, at around 20 percent – too high to be ignored.

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment. Note the significance of emissions from forests.

Now the world is looking seriously at cuts in greenhouse gas emissions of half by about 2030, and I predict they’ll soon be talking about 80-90 percent cuts needed by 2050. So, however you look at it, achieving these goals will be very hard if tropical deforestation continues to expand.

So the highlight of today was the launch by the World Bank’s new President, Bob Zoellick, of the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility. Ten ministers from major donor countries joined him to announce $300 million to work with tropical countries to reduce deforestation. This is projected to grow to over $1 billion per year by 2011 in new funding. 

World Bank President, Bob Zoellick, with (left to right) Victoria Tauli-Corpuz, Chair, UN Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues, Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul, Germany’s minister for economic cooperation and development, Bert Koenders, Dutch minister for development cooperation, and (ex-rock star) Peter Garrett, Australia’s brand new minister for environment, heritage and the arts.

This is an important initiative and one that Rare will engage with strongly. While Mr. Zoellick talked, in warm calm tones, about the Bank’s plans to assist tropical countries (none of which managed to send ministers to the event, most painfully Indonesia, the host, the only empty seat on the stage), protestors screamed outside. They were very upset about supposed ongoing Bank support for fossil fuel extraction projects.  They also were concerned that the Bank has not consulted indigenous peoples about their plans.

Since indigenous peoples have actually done a much better job than the rest of us at protecting tropical forests it was a bit of an oversight on the part of the Bank not to engage them more effectively. Mr. Zoellick promised that this would be fixed. Denmark’s minister implied that his country’s support for the program would depend upon resolution of this issue.

Protests outside the World Bank forests event calling for an end to Bank fossil fuel projects and greater inclusion of indigenous peoples in the process.

Rare has conducted several Pride campaigns related to forest fires, tropical forest conversion for farming and grazing, and consolidation of forest reserves. We now have the opportunity to draw upon this experience and create entire cohorts of campaigns around this theme. We will build partnerships with those who can help with the various monitoring and measurement challenges, threat reduction and lessons learning. The Bank may have overlooked local peoples as they launch this effort, but we are confident this aspect will become a central theme and Rare will contribute to developing the new approaches needed to engage and inspire communities at scale, thereby reducing forest loss, conserving livelihoods, cultures and biodiversity, and helping get down emissions.

Nigel Sizer’s 6th post from the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, which kicked off Monday, December 3rd. 

As we head into the second week of the Bali climate marathon the roads are becoming clogged with motorcades as 130 ministers and several heads of state, as well as various top politicians and climate change celebrities show up. The latter are, of course, led by Al Gore and Rajendra Pachauri who are flying in directly from Oslo after picking up the Nobel Peace Prize. (Don’t miss Gore’s acceptance speech at http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2007/gore-lecture_en.html )

Big business is also here by the executive jet-load. Today I joined them for Business Day, organized by the International Chamber of Commerce and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development. The latter’s members have a total market value of over seven trillion dollars and their products reach half of all humanity each and every day. They will also be responsible for the bulk of the investments needed to shift the world to a low-carbon economy.

Those investments will be massive. The International Energy Agency’s new World Energy Outlook analysis highlights the challenge. If the world is to see a halving of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 (needed to keep climate change from having extremely serious impacts), this would require the following:
- No additional emissions from power plants after 2012.
- 30 new nuclear plants operating every year.
- 2 new dams with the generating capacity of Three Gorges opened every year.
- 17,000 new 3 MW wind turbines installed every year.
- A decrease in carbon intensity year-on-year at about double the rate currently seen.

After presenting these findings, Nabuo Tanaka, head of the International Energy Agency, noted that to expect this shift is surely “science fiction.”

Yvo be Boer, head of the Secretariat of the UNFCCC, and Bjorn Stigson, President of WBCSD confer.

So it was all the more remarkable to have Yvo de Boer, energetic head of the UNFCCC Secretariat, coordinating the entire Bali process, join us and say, “If you in the business community think that achieving this change is science fiction then your companies are heading for extinction.” 

The head of Phillips Lighting for Asia pointed out that while lighting consumes a whopping 19 percent of the world’s energy, two thirds of this is using old technology which it makes complete financial sense to replace with new technology, saving the equivalent energy output of 530 average power plants. Major reductions are well within reach.

The BBC presented results of a recent global poll, which found that in all countries surveyed, including the large developing countries, there is a high level of willingness to pay well-designed carbon taxes. The highest level of support is in China. In other words, the politicians can act if they want to – the science is strong and the citizenry is aware and willing to change behavior even in poor countries.

Gro Harlem Brundtland sharing many decades of wisdom.

Gro Harlem Brundtland provided closing remarks in her new role as UN Special Envoy for Climate Change. It’s 20 years since she lead the Brundtland Commission that published the Our Common Future. At that time, she noted, there was doubt in the commission about whether they could say “climate change is plausible.” Only five years later the UNFCCC was negotiated in Rio de Janeiro, and shortly after the Kyoto Protocol was developed. Ending on a much-needed note of optimism she remarked on how quickly we have actually moved to understand and start to address climate change.  

There is indeed a sense of optimism that a turning point is at hand and that, with mutually assured destruction starring them in the face if they fail to act, the world’s political leaders are poised to make groundbreaking commitments here in Bali.
 

Nigel Sizer’s 5th post from the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, which kicked off on Monday, December 3rd.

Can we connect the poor with global carbon markets?

The poor are already suffering from climate change and they are most vulnerable to future changes in rainfall patterns and temperature, and to the resulting impacts on farming, fisheries, water availability and quality, shifting diseases, storm surge, salinization of coastal soils, floods and droughts, and the list goes on.

Adding insult to injury, as many have noted on the sidelines of the UN climate meeting, the poor are excluded from accessing the flows of funds resulting from the UN climate convention and the association Kyoto Protocol. Billions of dollars is flowing, but it is going to large-scale industrial investments such as landfill and coal mine methane capture, cleaning up coal plants in China, and the new hot option, protecting vast swathes of forest in the tropics. Small projects can’t cover the transaction costs involved. But it may be even worse than this. There are probably cases where large-scale efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions actually make the poor even poorer. Perhaps the clearest example is cases where rural people are pushed off their land as developers move in to establish oil palm or other plantations for biofuel production. Local activists claim that this is already happening in Indonesia.

Rare is deeply concerned about the opportunity that is perhaps being lost to help communities conserve forests, use healthy clean energy instead of smoky woodfuel and kerosene, expand productive agroforestry systems, and even to reduce poverty. We are therefore starting a feasibility analysis of a concept we call the “CO2mmunity Carbon Bank.” Our vision is to develop low cost tools and capability to channel carbon financing to small-scale development projects that also enhance biodiversity conservation.

>>Click here to read more about Rare’s “CO2mmunity Carbon Bank” pilot program.

With this in mind, last night I hosted a brainstorming dinner for ten leading thinkers and entrepreneurs from the world of climate change, community development and conservation. Guests included the founder and president of Ecosecurities (one of the leading companies in the sourcing, developing, and trading of emission reduction credits); Pedro Mauro Costa, and his wife Ruth Nussbaum (he leads a top-flight forest and conservation consulting group); Gerhard Dieterle, senior forestry advisor with the World Bank; Jonathan Wootliff, former head of communications for Greenpeace International; Bill Breed, top climate change advisor with the US Agency for International Development; and Adrian Wells, who leads the UK government’s efforts to partner with Indonesia on climate change issues.

Four hours of non-stop debate provided great input. By the end of the evening we agreed that we had a complex jigsaw puzzle of ideas, opportunities, challenges, and issues on the table in front of us, and that if we can assemble those pieces in the right way we would be onto something extremely important. Sonia Media, who supervises all of Ecosecurities’ emissions reduction partnerships globally (over 500 projects), helped us end discussion on a position note. “Now is the time to try to do this,” she said, adding, “There is a rapidly growing demand for carbon offsets that also help the poor and have other benefits.”

Rare will now roll out the feasibility analysis for the CO2mmunity Carbon Bank, and if it’s favorable, we plan to develop the tools and pilot the program in Indonesia starting in 2008.

Nigel Sizer’s 4th post from the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, which kicked off on Monday, December 3rd.

This afternoon, I stepped out of the side events on science, poverty and climate change impacts, and headed round the corner to the meeting hosted by the International Emissions Trading Association. What a different crowd — mostly older men, well dressed, and with a lavish buffet luncheon. Having eaten well, I joined their session on, “State and Future of the Carbon Market”…and quickly dozed off to sleep. The key message I took home was that the value and price of Carbon is volatile but generally rising quite fast. 

Seriously though, this is stunningly different from the (many) UN meetings I have attended on biodiversity and on forests. The private sector is here in force and a great deal of money is already at play. The Carbon market over the past 12 months has been worth over $30 billion. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Merrill Lynch and many others are getting into the game, and this is great – the more money people can make out of protecting the climate the more likely we will solve the problem quickly.

The evening before my wife Antika and I, together with WWF Indonesia’s Mubariq Ahmed and the World Bank’s Gerhard Dieterle, joined the “Gala Dinner” hosted by Sindicatum Carbon Capital, a boutique investment bank, based in London, that has raised over $1 billion for Carbon offset deals and is busy in China and Indonesia setting up programs to capture coalmine methane and cap massive landfills. The evening included a wonderful dance performance, the presenting of a check for $100,000 to the UN World Food Program and a banquet. Intriguingly they announced the first major investment by a Middle Eastern fund in the climate change business.

Mrs. Antika Sizer, with the World Bank’s Gerhard Dieterle
at the Sindicatum Carbon Capital gala

We need to build a bridge between this global market and conservation, poverty reduction and climate change adaptation efforts on the ground. More on that tomorrow!

I started my career as a field ecologist in the Brazilian Amazon. While I was there a major research program was just beginning to analyze the Amazon’s relationship with weather and climate. Some results of this work were presented today by Dr. Antonio Nobre of Brazil’s National Amazon Research Institute. 

Get this: each DAY the Amazon rainforest evaporates 20 billion tonnes of water into the atmosphere, which, if we did it ourselves, would take the equivalent of 145 years of power generated by the world’s largest hydro dam, Itaipu (which also happens to be in Brazil). Think about the value of that ecosystem service, which produces the rain that works its way down the Andes and eventually ends up watering southern Brazil and neighboring countries, where 70 percent of Latin America’s economy is based. Maybe conserving the Amazon ecosystem would be a good idea after all!

Modern dance performance at the gala dinner.
Note the trees being symbolically planted to sequester Carbon!