Nigel Sizer’s 6th post from the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, which kicked off Monday, December 3rd.
As we head into the second week of the Bali climate marathon the roads are becoming clogged with motorcades as 130 ministers and several heads of state, as well as various top politicians and climate change celebrities show up. The latter are, of course, led by Al Gore and Rajendra Pachauri who are flying in directly from Oslo after picking up the Nobel Peace Prize. (Don’t miss Gore’s acceptance speech at http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2007/gore-lecture_en.html )
Big business is also here by the executive jet-load. Today I joined them for Business Day, organized by the International Chamber of Commerce and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development. The latter’s members have a total market value of over seven trillion dollars and their products reach half of all humanity each and every day. They will also be responsible for the bulk of the investments needed to shift the world to a low-carbon economy.
Those investments will be massive. The International Energy Agency’s new World Energy Outlook analysis highlights the challenge. If the world is to see a halving of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 (needed to keep climate change from having extremely serious impacts), this would require the following:
- No additional emissions from power plants after 2012.
- 30 new nuclear plants operating every year.
- 2 new dams with the generating capacity of Three Gorges opened every year.
- 17,000 new 3 MW wind turbines installed every year.
- A decrease in carbon intensity year-on-year at about double the rate currently seen.
After presenting these findings, Nabuo Tanaka, head of the International Energy Agency, noted that to expect this shift is surely “science fiction.”
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Yvo be Boer, head of the Secretariat of the UNFCCC, and Bjorn Stigson, President of WBCSD confer.
So it was all the more remarkable to have Yvo de Boer, energetic head of the UNFCCC Secretariat, coordinating the entire Bali process, join us and say, “If you in the business community think that achieving this change is science fiction then your companies are heading for extinction.”
The head of Phillips Lighting for Asia pointed out that while lighting consumes a whopping 19 percent of the world’s energy, two thirds of this is using old technology which it makes complete financial sense to replace with new technology, saving the equivalent energy output of 530 average power plants. Major reductions are well within reach.
The BBC presented results of a recent global poll, which found that in all countries surveyed, including the large developing countries, there is a high level of willingness to pay well-designed carbon taxes. The highest level of support is in China. In other words, the politicians can act if they want to – the science is strong and the citizenry is aware and willing to change behavior even in poor countries.
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Gro Harlem Brundtland sharing many decades of wisdom.
Gro Harlem Brundtland provided closing remarks in her new role as UN Special Envoy for Climate Change. It’s 20 years since she lead the Brundtland Commission that published the Our Common Future. At that time, she noted, there was doubt in the commission about whether they could say “climate change is plausible.” Only five years later the UNFCCC was negotiated in Rio de Janeiro, and shortly after the Kyoto Protocol was developed. Ending on a much-needed note of optimism she remarked on how quickly we have actually moved to understand and start to address climate change.
There is indeed a sense of optimism that a turning point is at hand and that, with mutually assured destruction starring them in the face if they fail to act, the world’s political leaders are poised to make groundbreaking commitments here in Bali.
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